From the category archives:

Forex Investing

Euro Still Struggling with Southern Europe Woes

December 9, 2009

The Euro continued its sell off in Wednesday’s early trade, taking the pair down to 1.4667 prior to a recovery back to the 1.4720 area. Sell stops under the 1.47 put pressure on the market, but there was some apparent short covering after the get me out orders were filled.

Yesterday, credit rating changes in Greece played a role in the Euro’s weakness, and today, Standard and Poor’s negative assessment of Spain’s economic recovery continues to demonstrate the weakness of the South Europe’s economies. Market Watch commented: "Spain is struggling with the worst downturn in decades, fueled by a collapse of the construction industry. The country has the highest rate of unemployment in developed Europe and higher than many emerging European countries."

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Equities and Gold Drop as Dollar Rises

December 9, 2009

Scott’s Investments submits:

Some better then expected jobs numbers earlier this week helped raise expectations for higher US interest rates, which in turn has spurned a rally in the dollar. A rally in the dollar caused a sell-off in equities and gold as investors exit dollar-carry trade positions.

In reality, it is more complex then this. However, looking at the charts below of SPY (S&P 500), GLD (gold), UUP (U.S. bullish dollar), and the ten-year Treasury, you can see recent (un)correlations of especially the former 3 markets.

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Interesting Longer Term Bets Developing in Currency and the Stock Market

December 8, 2009

Trader Mark submits:

A couple of very interesting stories on Bloomberg regarding some long term directional bets by what I assume to be big players. Effectively it’s the same "dollar inverse" trade but in reverse …keep in mind dollar down = stock market up is not the traditional relationship, it’s just something that has taken a life of its own as Ben Bernanke has provided an unlimited fire hose of US dollars to make us all feel better via inflated asset values. There are some fascinating tidbits in these stories.

First, ‘Options Signal Stock Peril as Analysts See Profits’ – this is an interesting one, as by the time analysts form consensus about something, it’s generally time to do the opposite. The same analysts hiding in bunkers this spring now are giddily raising estimates across the board in out years. Their incorrect assessments of how valuable chopping so many Americans from the payrolls would be to corporate bottom lines, led to masses of "better than expected" beats during earnings season, but like any good momentum stock – eventually the analysts race to "catch up" and place a target far too high. That’s when you get disappointment – we should be setting up for such a scenario by Q2 or Q3 2010.

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Today in Commodities: Looking for More Evidence

December 7, 2009

Matthew Bradbard submits:

Crude oil traded lower for the fourth consecutive day with prices destined to make their way to $72 in the coming sessions… in my opinion. Clients have no exposure long or short through recommendation from the company. As we suggested in our commentary published this morning, we will refrain from trading Crude and the distillates until the first of the year from what we believe to be longs from lower levels. Natural gas was higher by 8.5% todaym hitting our objective $5.04 in the February contract. We would advise using the explosive move today to trail stops on future sand to take partial profits on call spreads. $4.86 should support in the January contract with resistance at $5.15 and then $5.30.

Lumber has retraced 50% so those eager to establish longs can start lightly scaling in, we’re waiting for more evidence and think a trade to $210 in January is possible. Coffee reversed recent losses gaining almost 4% today. We may have some bullish ideas in the coming sessions; stay tuned.

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Dollar Back Above 50-DMA for the First Time Since April

December 7, 2009

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

The US Dollar Index is rallying once again today and is now poised to close above its 50-day average (DMA) for the second straight day. To put the greenback’s recent malaise into perspective, you have to go all the way back to April to find the last time the index closed above its 50-DMA for two days in a row. Back then, the streak only lasted two days as well!

click to enlarge

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