Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of the historical decision by the Fed to cut its target rate to 0%-0.25%. As shown in the first chart below, this is the lowest the rate has been going all the way back to 1934 (prior to 1971 the Discount Rate is used).
The Fed has kept rates unchanged now for 364 days. This is a very lengthy time period, but it’s not without precedent. Prior to 1970, the Discount Rate remained unchanged for years at a time. The longest period where the Fed Funds Rate was left unchanged was 552 days in 1997 and 1998. For the current period to break the 552-day record, the Fed would have to leave rates unchanged at 0% through at least June 22nd, 2010. The Fed has signaled that they don’t plan on hiking rates before then, but with inflation numbers coming in hot this morning, the market may force the Fed’s hand sooner than that.
