Tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of the historical decision by the Fed to cut its target rate to 0%-0.25%. As shown in the first chart below, this is the lowest the rate has been going all the way back to 1934 (prior to 1971 the Discount Rate is used).

The Fed has kept rates unchanged now for 364 days. This is a very lengthy time period, but it's not without precedent. Prior to 1970, the Discount Rate remained unchanged for years at a time. The longest period where the Fed Funds Rate was left unchanged was 552 days in 1997 and 1998. For the current period to break the 552-day record, the Fed would have to leave rates unchanged at 0% through at least June 22nd, 2010. The Fed has signaled that they don't plan on hiking rates before then, but with inflation numbers coming in hot this morning, the market may force the Fed's hand sooner than that.

Forex Trader Note: Usd weakness may hit on the strength of risk tolerance in the global market, with 1105 being the main price point to monitor on S&P futures trade. A daily close on either side of that may determine direction for the upcoming global sessions.

Questions on Usd strength will continue until fair value is found off the economic calendar this week, for the next two weeks the calendar is packed with red flag releases. Look for the mixed momentum in the forex pairs to continue, and therefore to be ready to bank near-term targets on most trades taken until the 4 hour trends and momentum reads get aligned.

Same old story in Crude, prices slightly lower on today’s session. We think Crude is a buy and have advised clients to buy March $5 call spreads. In the January contract we feel a move to $76 is possible in the coming weeks. Continued cold weather and a mega energy deal today helped natural gas move 3% higher today. Immediate support is seen at $5.10 and then $4.80 in the January contract with resistance at $5.40 and then $5.50. We will be looking at buying a 40-60 cent dip for clients.

Sugar is higher by an additional 5% today; that marks a 3 day run of over 13%. Ideally you heeded our advice and bought the break-out. We expect a challenge of the September highs about 1 penny higher in the March contract. Big moves in the OJ and coffee markets as well; OJ traded to a 15 month high and coffee appreciated by 2.25%. Soft commodities could be the surprise bullish sector in 2010.